CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-10T06:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16704/-1
CME Note: The source for this CME was unclear. The latitude and longitude were adjusted for this CME based on SWPC_CAT analysis with 2 coronagraphs (SOHO/STA). A flux rope type signature was visible around 04-15T03:28 by DSCOVR at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-15T03:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-15T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 10/2359Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 300 km/s.
Longitude (deg): 19W
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 27 deg.

Notes: Having seen possible signatures of a CME arrival in solar wind parameters this morning & magnetometers, I have reanalysed a CME from 10/11 April, which previously we had passing ahead of Earth. There was a very faint partial halo in SOHO C2/C3. Enlil has an arrival on afternoon/evening of 14th, but background solar winds are too strong suggesting later arrival. 
Space weather advisor: moswoc

Lead Time: -7.53 hour(s)
Difference: 3.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-04-15T11:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy